Stumbled or Complicit? The $1.5 Trillion Question

By Andrew Klein 

Dedicated to my wife, who is more forgiving than I am, and I love her for it.

I. The Massacre in Minab

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran. On the first day of the war, a girls’ elementary school in Minab, southern Iran—the Shajareh Tayyebeh school—was struck.

According to Iranian state media, at least 165 students were killed. Ninety-six others were injured. Parents who had dropped their daughters off for class raced back to find the school reduced to rubble. Classrooms had become mass graves.

One mother, whose daughter Zeinab had memorised the Quran and was due to compete in a national recitation contest, wept as she said: “My dream died with her”.

The school was not a military target. It was adjacent to a Revolutionary Guards barracks—but the strike did not hit the barracks. It hit the children.

The US military claimed it was “investigating” . Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said: “We, of course, never target civilian targets” . He did not take responsibility. He did not apologise. The US has never acknowledged that its missiles killed those children.

The UN Committee on the Rights of the Child issued a statement: children must be protected from war. Gordon Brown, the UN’s special envoy for global education, wrote that “no child should ever become collateral damage”.

But they do. And the world moves on.

II. The Pattern: From the Civil War to the Permanent War Economy

Wars used to be seen as tragedies. Now they are business opportunities.

The transformation began with the American Civil War (1861–1865). It was the first conflict in which industrial capacity, logistics, and technological infrastructure became decisive factors . Railroads transported troops. The telegraph enabled instantaneous communication. Ironclad warships engaged in combat. The rifle replaced the musket, making cavalry charges obsolete and turning battlefields into slaughterhouses. Aerial observation was introduced. Photography chronicled the dead—images of bloated corpses on the fields of Antietam shocked the American public for the first time.

But the Civil War’s real legacy was not emancipation. It was the industrialisation of destruction.

Government contracts created enormous wealth for manufacturers. In 1860, there were fewer than 100 millionaires in the United States. By 1875, there were more than 1,000. The “robber barons”—J.P. Morgan, John D. Rockefeller, Andrew Carnegie—built empires on the foundation of war production and its aftermath.

The pattern was set:

Crisis → Mobilisation → Profit → Inequality → Resistance → The next crisis

That pattern has repeated across twelve thousand years. But the Civil War was the moment when the machine became self-aware. When the industrialists learned that war was not just a tragedy—it was an opportunity.

III. The $1.5 Trillion War Economy

On April 3, 2026, the Trump administration formally requested $1.5 trillion for defence in the 2027 fiscal year. This is the largest defence appropriation in American history—a 40-50 per cent increase from current spending.

The breakdown:

· $1.15 trillion in base discretionary spending (the first time the base budget has crossed the trillion-dollar threshold)

· $350 billion in supplemental funding for war costs and accelerated programs, to be passed through budget reconciliation (requiring only Republican votes)

What it funds:

· 85 F-35 fighter jets

· $17.5 billion for R&D on the “Golden Dome” missile defence system—Trump’s pet project modelled on Israel’s Iron Dome

· 34 new combat and support ships, including initial funding for “Trump class” battleships

· Restocking munitions depleted in the Iran war, now in its sixth week

· A 5-7 per cent pay raise for military personnel

The critique:

Senator Jeff Merkley called it “an out-of-touch plea for more money for guns and bombs, and less for the things people need, like housing, healthcare, education, roads” .

William Hartung of the Quincy Institute argues that “reckless resort to force does not work” and that this budget “will make America weaker by underwriting a misguided strategy, funding outmoded weapons programs, and crowding out other essential public investments” .

The Union of Concerned Scientists calls this a “Bloody New Deal”—comparing its scale to the original New Deal but warning it would add almost $6 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, funding a “temporary feeding frenzy” for defence contractors while doing nothing to fix structural issues like monopolisation in the industry.

IV. The Powerus Deal: Corruption in Plain Sight

On March 31, 2026, Florida-based drone manufacturer Powerus announced a deal bringing Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump on board as investors, giving them “sizable equity stakes” in the company.

The company makes heavy-lift drones capable of carrying up to 675 kilograms. It can convert manned boats into remotely operated or fully autonomous vessels. And it is competing for a slice of $1.1 billion set aside by the Pentagon to build up a domestic armed drone manufacturing base, following the President’s executive order banning foreign-made drones .

The sequence is indisputable:

1. Trump launches military strikes against Iran on February 28, 2026 

2. Trump bans foreign-made drones, creating a domestic market

3. The Pentagon sets aside $1.1 billion for domestic drone manufacturing

4. Trump’s sons buy into Powerus, a drone company positioned to compete for that funding

5. Powerus begins pitching its defensive drone interceptors to Gulf states that are now under threat from Iranian retaliation—because of Trump’s war 

Richard Painter, former chief White House ethics lawyer under President George W. Bush, told the Associated Press:

“These countries are under enormous pressure to buy from the sons of the president so he will do what they want. This is going to be the first family of a president to make a lot of money off war — a war he didn’t get the consent of Congress for”.

Senator Christopher Murphy said on X: “Who was it? Trump? A family member? A White House staffer? This is corruption. Mind-blowing corruption”.

Eric Trump’s response did not deny the conflict of interest: “I am incredibly proud to invest in companies I believe in. Drones are clearly the wave of the future”.

The sons have said they didn’t get credit for their restraint in their father’s first term, so they have decided not to hold back this time.

V. The Australian Superannuation Connection

On March 24, 2026, Warwick Powell published a detailed analysis in Pearls and Irritations revealing that Australian super funds are on track to commit approximately $1.5 trillion to US assets by 2035—roughly 20 per cent of the projected retirement pool .

The timing: The summit discussions coincided almost exactly with the release of the Pentagon budget and occurred just days after the Minab tragedy—where an AI-assisted US strike killed between 165-180 people, most of them young schoolgirls .

The concentration risk: Powell notes that Australian super funds already hold “substantial US exposure—often two-thirds or more of international equities, with total US-linked holdings potentially exceeding $1 trillion.” The question he poses: “Does committing such an expanding share to one market, at this particular time, represent the most responsible stewardship?” 

The ethical question: “Many Australian funds hold stakes—directly or indirectly—in companies providing the technological backbone for US military applications. While not purchasing weapons, these investments connect to an ecosystem where AI-driven targeting contributed to the Minab tragedy”.

The geopolitical entanglement: Powell warns that “the risk that superannuation policy and the management of workers’ and retirees’ funds are becoming entangled in geopolitics” is “profoundly concerning for a system designed to secure personal futures, not to function as an instrument of international alignment”.

Meanwhile, the Australian government has endorsed a recommendation that the Department of Defence establish a dedicated division to work with private investors—including superannuation funds—to deliver infrastructure projects. IFM Investors already partners with Defence on such projects.

VI. The Ukraine Connection: Another $1.5 Trillion

The same number appears again. On January 22, 2026, the European Commission presented Ukraine’s development roadmap to EU leaders, containing Kiev’s request for a total of $1.5 trillion over the next ten years .

The breakdown: $800 billion for reconstruction, $700 billion for military purposes (including a €90 billion interest-free “military loan” for 2026-2027) .

The opposition: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has vowed to oppose the plan, warning that “the children and grandchildren of current adult EU citizens will have to pay the price” and that Ukraine will never repay the money .

VII. The Pattern: Why $1.5 Trillion?

The number is not magic. It is scale. It is the amount required to fund:

1. A permanent war economy in the United States—restocking munitions, expanding the defence industrial base, building the “Golden Dome” and “Golden Fleet”

2. A permanent pivot of Australian retirement savings into US assets—tying the financial security of Australian workers to the American war machine

3. A permanent reconstruction and military commitment to Ukraine—ensuring the conflict continues for years, if not decades

These three streams are not separate. They are the same river. Australian super funds investing in US tech and AI are funding the very systems that power modern military targeting. The Pentagon’s $1.5 trillion request is a guarantee to defence contractors that the war will continue. The EU’s $1.5 trillion commitment to Ukraine ensures that the Eastern front remains active.

The result is a world of never-ending wars—in the Middle East, in Eastern Europe, and potentially elsewhere. The defence contractors profit. The politicians who receive donations from both profit.

And the rest of us—the ones who are not active participants—pay the price. At the bowser. At the grocery store. In the black rain falling on Tehran. In the schoolgirls buried in Minab.

VIII. The Failure: Why the Machine Cannot Last

The machine has been running for twelve thousand years. But it is not eternal. The contradictions are built in.

1. Extraction destroys the extractor. The machine cannot extract forever. The soil becomes barren. The workers become exhausted. The resources become scarce. Eventually, there is nothing left to take.

2. Inequality breeds instability. The rich get richer. The poor get poorer. And the poor eventually revolt. Not because they are radical. Because they are hungry.

3. The narrative cracks. The small gods can control the media. They can control the politicians. They can control the universities. But they cannot control the truth. The truth leaks out. In the diary. In the photograph. In the livestream from Gaza. In the images of schoolgirls buried under rubble. The narrative cracks, and once it cracks, it cannot be repaired.

4. The young wake up. The old die. The young inherit the world. And the young are not as easily controlled. They have grown up with the internet. They have seen the lies. They are angry.

The American empire will crumble. Not because of China. Not because of Russia. Because of internal contradictions.

IX. What This Means for Australia

The Australian government is not just watching this happen. It is participating.

The endorsement of private investment in defence infrastructure, the deepening ties between super funds and US assets, the silence on the ethical implications of AI-assisted targeting, the bipartisan support for AUKUS, the refusal to condemn the death penalty law, the refusal to summon the Israeli ambassador—all of it points to a government that has been captured.

Not that Australian political parties would knowingly sign up for a total war economy. But stupid has been thick on the ground, and it is displayed by the current Albanese government, his Foreign Minister Senator Penny Wong, and Defence Minister Richard Marles MP.

They have stumbled into complicity. Or they have chosen it. Either way, the result is the same: Australia’s retirement savings are being used to fund a permanent war economy. Australian soldiers are being trained by Israeli forces. Australian police are adopting Israeli tactics. Australian universities are being forced to adopt the IHRA definition, conflating criticism of Israel with antisemitism.

The Global South is rising. The BRICS nations are building a new economic order—one not based on extraction, but on cooperation. And Australia is aligning itself with the old order, with the dying empire, with the machine that is running out of time.

The world will see Australia as a pariah. Not because of what we have done—but because of what we have allowed.

X. The Projected Future: 2030-2050

2026-2028: The War Economy Peaks

The war in Iran continues. The US defence budget balloons to $1.5 trillion. Australian super funds pour money into US assets. The EU commits to Ukraine reconstruction. The defence contractors profit. The oil companies profit. The bankers profit.

But the costs mount. Fuel prices remain high. Inflation persists. The global South turns away. The young protest. The narrative cracks.

2028-2030: The Financial Crisis

The machine has extracted too much. The debt is unsustainable. The bubble bursts. Not a recession—a depression. The banks fail. The bailouts come. The wealth is transferred upward again. But this time, the people are angry.

The young do not accept the bailouts. The young do not accept the austerity. The young take to the streets. Not in one country. In many.

2030-2035: The Reckoning

The old order crumbles. Not with a bang—with a whimper. The politicians who enabled the machine are voted out. The media that amplified the fear is discredited. The institutions that failed are reformed.

The Global South rises. The petrodollar system collapses. The BRICS nations lead a new economic order—one not based on extraction, but on cooperation.

XI. The Question

The $1.5 trillion is not a coincidence. It is a coordination.

The war economy is being built. The question is whether Australians will wake up to what is being done with their retirement savings before it is too late.

Will we continue to allow our super funds to invest in the engines of war? Will we continue to allow our politicians to be captured by foreign lobbies? Will we continue to allow our children’s futures to be mortgaged for defence contracts?

Or will we cut the wire?

The pattern is clear. The machine is running out of time. The young are waking up. The Global South is rising.

The question is not whether the old order will fall. It is whether Australia will fall with it—or whether we will choose a different path.

Andrew Klein 

April 5, 2026

Sources:

· Gordon Brown, The Guardian, “Children killed, a school turned into a graveyard” (March 12, 2026) 

· Associated Press, “Company backed by Trump sons looks to sell drone interceptors to Gulf states being attacked by Iran” (April 2, 2026) 

· The Guardian, “Pete Hegseth says US is ‘investigating’ deadly strike on girls’ school in Iran” (March 4, 2026) 

· The Guardian, “The most bitter news: Iran reels as more than 100 children reportedly killed in school bombing” (February 28, 2026) 

· Warwick Powell, Pearls and Irritations, “Superannuation and the $1.5 trillion question” (March 24, 2026) 

· US News & World Report, “Company Backed by Trump Sons Looks to Sell Drone Interceptors to Gulf States Being Attacked by Iran” (April 2, 2026) 

· The Times of Israel, “Drone maker backed by Trump’s sons looks to sell to Gulf states attacked by Iran” (April 2, 2026)