The Unseen Currents: How History Fuels Today’s Great Power Conflicts

By Andrew Klein 10^th November 2025

The headlines shout of a new Cold War: NATO versus Russia, the West against China. The narrative presented is often one of unprovoked aggression by authoritarian states. But to understand the present, we must dare to look deeper, to the unseen historical currents that flow beneath the surface of modern diplomacy. The tensions we witness today are not spontaneous; they are the latest eruptions in a long cycle of intervention, grievance, and power projection.

Part 1: The Ghosts of Interventions Past

The deep-seated distrust that defines contemporary relations is a direct product of historical wounds that have never fully healed.

The Russian Crucible

Following the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917,the United States, Britain, and other powers did not merely observe. They intervened militarily in the Russian Civil War, siding with the “White” forces against the “Reds.” This attempt to strangle the communist state in its cradle left an indelible mark on the Russian psyche. It forged a lasting narrative in Moscow that the West is fundamentally hostile to its existence and will seize any opportunity to weaken it—a perception that continues to shape Kremlin policy to this day.

China’s Century of Humiliation

For China,the historical lens is shaped by what it terms the “Century of Humiliation,” beginning with the Opium Wars. To rectify a trade deficit, the British Empire flooded China with Indian opium, leading to military defeat and the imposition of “unequal treaties.” This period, marked by the sacking of Beijing and the ceding of territories, is remembered as a time of national subjugation by Western colonial powers. Consequently, modern U.S. strategic moves are often interpreted in Beijing not as upholding a rules-based order, but as a continuation of Western containment.

Part 2: The Modern Machinery of Perception

These historical grievances are amplified by a modern media landscape that often obscures complex reality in favor of simplified narratives.

· The Mainstream Media Filter: The media can be manipulated through sophisticated public relations and government propaganda, which is sometimes disseminated as legitimate news. This includes tactics like paying journalists for favorable coverage and government agencies producing prepackaged news segments that air without disclosure of their source. This environment makes it difficult for the public to access the nuanced historical context essential for understanding these conflicts.

· The Military-Industrial Complex: This powerful nexus of corporate, military, and governmental elites can create a built-in incentive for sustained international tension over peaceful diplomacy, as conflict drives profit for the arms and related sectors.

Part 3: The Cycle of Action and Reaction

The following table illustrates the dangerous feedback loop that characterizes modern geopolitics, where defensive actions by one power are perceived as existential threats by another.

Western Action & Justification Perception by Russia/China & Reaction Ultimate Outcome

NATO expansion framed as an “open-door” policy for democratic nations seeking security guarantees. Perceived as strategic encirclement and a deliberate violation of promised spheres of influence. Increased Russian aggression, as seen in Ukraine, to create a strategic buffer zone and re-establish dominance.

“Pivoting to Asia” and strengthening alliances (Quad, AUKUS) to uphold a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” Viewed as building an “Asian NATO” for the explicit purpose of containment, evoking memories of colonial-era humiliation. Heightened Chinese assertiveness in regions like the South China Sea and a solidified “no-limits” partnership with Russia.

Public condemnation of Russian and Chinese actions as undermining a “rules-based international order.” Seen as profound hypocrisy, projecting the West’s own long history of military intervention and unilateral action. A reinforced narrative of Western double standards, which Moscow and Beijing use to justify their own adversarial policies.

Conclusion: A Path Beyond the Cycle

The great power competition of the 21st century is rooted in a historical cycle of intervention, perceived betrayal, and counter-projection. What the West frames as defending a liberal order is viewed from Moscow and Beijing as a continuation of hegemonic policies designed to suppress their rise.

Breaking this cycle requires a public that can critically engage with history and see beyond the simplified, often sensationalized narratives presented by much of the mainstream media. It demands a foreign policy grounded in the recognition of these deep-seated grievances and a commitment to mutual security. The alternative is a future dictated by the ghosts of the past, replaying the same conflicts with ever-more dangerous tools. Understanding these unseen currents is the first, essential step toward navigating a path to a more stable and peaceful world.