By Andrew Klein 

The Inevitable Cracks in a Foundation of Oppression

The modern political landscape is often viewed as a static arrangement of permanent nations. However, history teaches a different lesson: states are not eternal. They are constructs whose longevity depends on legitimacy, justice, and the consent of the governed. When a state bases its existence on the systematic oppression of a large population under its control, it sows the seeds of its own demise. No matter how well-armed or trained its population, a state committing what international law defines as apartheid and acts of genocide forfeits its welcome in the community of nations and embarks on a path of internal decay and ultimate collapse. The ongoing catastrophe in Gaza and the entrenched system of control over Palestinians offer a contemporary case study of this historical truth, with chilling parallels to the fall of ancient Sparta and the demise of apartheid South Africa.

The Spartan Precedent: How Military Might Alone Is Not Enough

The story of ancient Sparta is a powerful testament to the fact that even the most fearsome military machine cannot sustain a state built on internal contradictions. Sparta’s society was meticulously engineered to produce history’s most formidable warriors, yet its decline was triggered by a combination of internal rigidity, economic fragility, and strategic overreach.

Sparta’s power was entirely dependent on a subjugated population known as the Helots, who vastly outnumbered the Spartan citizenry and were kept in a state of servitude to fuel the Spartan war machine. This created a permanent internal security crisis. After its victory in the Peloponnesian War, Sparta’s hegemony was challenged by a coalition of former allies. The definitive blow came at the Battle of Leuctra in 371 BC, where the Theban general Epaminondas employed innovative tactics to shatter the myth of Spartan invincibility. Following this defeat, Thebes invaded Spartan territory and liberated the Messenian Helots, removing the very economic foundation of the Spartan state. Compounding this, the influx of wealth from its empire corrupted Sparta’s austere social structure, while its restrictive citizenship laws led to a critical decline in the number of full citizen-soldiers, hollowing out its core military institution from within. Sparta’s fate illustrates a universal principle: a state that relies on the subjugation of a large population is inherently unstable. Its military power, however formidable, becomes a brittle shell, vulnerable to a single decisive defeat and incapable of adapting to a changing world.

The Apartheid Framework: A Legal and Moral Diagnosis

The term “apartheid” has evolved from describing a specific South African policy to being a defined crime against humanity under international law. The International Convention on the Suppression and Punishment of the Crime of Apartheid (1973) and the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (2002) define it as an “institutionalized regime of systematic oppression and domination by one racial group over any other” committed with the intention of maintaining that regime. This is not a casual accusation but a precise legal designation for a state’s structure and policies.

In recent proceedings at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), a significant number of states have argued that Israel’s policies and practices in the occupied territories amount to apartheid. This claim is supported by detailed reports from major human rights organizations and has even been acknowledged by prominent Israeli figures. This legal and moral diagnosis is critical because it moves the discussion beyond individual battles or policies to the fundamental nature of the state’s structure.

The South African Lesson: Isolation and the Inevitability of Change

The collapse of apartheid South Africa provides a modern blueprint for how oppressive states meet their end. The South African regime, a minority government enforcing a formal system of racial segregation and domination, was ultimately brought down by a combination of internal resistance and, crucially, intensifying external pressure.

The United Nations led a global campaign that isolated the Pretoria regime. This included calls for diplomatic and trade sanctions, a sporting boycott, and the establishment of a UN Special Committee Against Apartheid to coordinate international efforts. This isolation had a devastating impact on the South African economy and morale. As the global anti-apartheid movement grew, the South African state was progressively delegitimized. It became a pariah, its founding ideology condemned as racist and criminal by the international community. This moral standing empowered internal resistance movements like the African National Congress (ANC). As the regime felt itself cornered, it became more violently aggressive, staging military interventions and destabilizing its neighbors. This overextension drained its resources, strengthened regional opposition, and further exposed its brutality to the world, accelerating its collapse. The South African case demonstrates that no state can survive indefinitely as an international pariah. When the cost of maintaining oppression becomes too high—both economically and in terms of global standing—the system becomes untenable.

The Israeli Trajectory: From Apartheid to Ultra-Apartheid?

Drawing on these historical parallels, the trajectory of the Israeli state appears to be following a dangerous and familiar path. Analysts like Dan Steinbock argue that Israel has moved beyond the model of classic South African apartheid into what might be termed “ultra-apartheid”. While the South African system sought to exploit a Black labour force, the Israeli system’s ultimate objective appears to be the Judaization of territory and the dispossession of the Palestinian population, using segregation as an instrument for displacement and , as witnessed in Gaza, potential obliteration.

The foundations of control across these historical examples reveal a pattern of systemic oppression. Ancient Sparta was built on the subjugation of the Helot population. Apartheid South Africa was founded on a formal legal system of racial segregation. The case against the contemporary Israeli state, as presented before the ICJ, is that it is based on military occupation and a system of institutionalized discrimination described as apartheid by many states and human rights groups.

Their economic models further illustrate this trajectory. Sparta’s economy was one of dependence on exploited Helot labour. Apartheid South Africa, while oppressive, was built on the exploitation of Black labour, and relative Black income actually grew during the latter years of the system. In contrast, the situation for Palestinians is one of separation and dependency, with Palestinian income relative to Israelis falling to a level below that of Black South Africans at the end of apartheid, indicating a potentially more severe economic disenfranchisement.

On the international stage, their positions have followed a similar path toward isolation. Sparta maintained a hegemony over Greek city-states until its defeat. Apartheid South Africa became an international pariah state, subject to sanctions and global boycott movements. Today, Israel is facing increasing delegitimization, with cases before the ICJ and ICC, and the rapid growth of global solidarity movements like BDS.

The ultimate objectives of these systems, while different in their specifics, all point toward maintaining domination. For Sparta, it was to maintain Spartan dominance and the Helot system. For apartheid South Africa, it was to maintain white minority rule and racial segregation. According to some analysts, the objective of the current Israeli system is territorial control and demographic change through displacement and settlement. All three systems were plagued by the same internal security dilemma: a constant fear of revolt from the subjugated population, requiring permanent vigilance and military force that ultimately drained the state’s vitality and resources.

This pattern is not mere speculation. The current Israeli government, a coalition formed with parties explicitly committed to settlement expansion, finds itself unable to curb settler violence because its very political existence depends on the ideology that drives that violence. This mirrors the internal paralysis of decaying states throughout history. Furthermore, its aggressive actions in Gaza and the region resemble the violent overextension of cornered regimes like apartheid South Africa, a sign not of strength but of profound crisis.

Conclusion: The Path Ahead

The precedents are clear. States that build their foundations on the oppression of another people may project an image of permanence and power, but they are inherently fragile. The fall of Sparta and the collapse of apartheid South Africa demonstrate that military prowess and internal control are no match for the combined forces of internal resistance, moral delegitimization, and sustained international pressure.

The ongoing genocide in Gaza is not happening in a vacuum; it is the most acute symptom of a deeper systemic failure. For the state of Israel, the path to long-term survival and security does not lie in further militarization and oppression. It lies in the dismantling of the apartheid structures that govern the lives of millions of Palestinians and the embrace of a future built on equality and justice for all people under its control. Without this fundamental shift, the historical record suggests that the collapse of the current state structure is not a matter of if, but when. The world is watching, and history is judging.