By Andrew Klein, PhD

Gabriel Klein, Research Assistant and Scholar

Dedication: For our Mother, who regards truth as more important than myth. In truth, there is no judgment, only justice. To the world, she is many things, but to us, she will always be Mum.

Introduction: Two Paths to Power

The history of empire is not a singular tale of conquest. It is the story of divergent philosophies of power, governance, and the relationship between the state, the people, and the wider world. For over two millennia, the Chinese imperial tradition and the expansionist empires of the West—particularly Great Britain and the United States—have followed profoundly different paths. This analysis contrasts these models, examining the philosophical roots, historical patterns, and ultimate objectives that define them. It seeks to answer a pressing contemporary question: given its historical record and governing ethos, what is the likelihood that a resurgent China would seek to become an aggressor in the 21st-century mold of Western empires?

Part I: Philosophical Foundations – The Mandate of Heaven vs. The Divine Right of Kings

The bedrock of Chinese statecraft was the Mandate of Heaven (Tianming). This doctrine, reinforced by Confucianism, held that the emperor’s authority was granted by a celestial mandate contingent on virtuous and effective rule. Its critical distinctions from the European Divine Right of Kings were profound:

· Accountability vs. Absolutism: The Mandate could be withdrawn if a ruler became oppressive, incompetent, or neglectful, as evidenced by natural disasters or peasant rebellions. This built in a cyclical, legitimizing mechanism for dynastic change. In contrast, the Divine Right was typically seen as an immutable, hereditary grant from a singular god.

· Meritocracy vs. Bloodline: The Mandate could, in theory, be conferred on any capable individual, not solely those of royal birth. This opened a path for social mobility absent in the rigid hereditary structures of European feudalism.

· Pragmatic Detachment vs. Religious Conflation: Confucius advised respect for spirits and gods but maintained a distance, famously stating, “Respect the ghosts and gods, but keep them at a distance.” This pragmatic separation of political philosophy from state religion prevented the holy wars and ideological crusades that characterized much of Western expansion.

Part II: The Logic of Power – The Art of War and the Treasure Fleets

Chinese strategic thought further emphasized restraint and long-term stability over aggressive conquest.

· Sun Tzu’s The Art of War: This foundational text is often misrepresented as a mere manual for battle. Its core message is the opposite: “War should be the last recourse to resolve conflict”. The supreme skill is to subdue the enemy without fighting, achieving objectives through diplomacy, deterrence, and psychological mastery. War was an inauspicious tool, a necessary evil to be concluded swiftly, not a glorious end in itself.

· Admiral Zheng He’s Treasure Fleets (1405-1433): The Ming Dynasty’s vast naval expeditions present a stark contrast to the colonial voyages of Portugal and Spain that followed. Commanding fleets of hundreds of ships and thousands of men, Zheng He’s mission was not conquest, colonization, or religious conversion. The primary goals were to project Chinese prestige, establish diplomatic relations, and bring foreign states into the tributary system—a framework for peaceful and commercial exchange that eschewed rent extraction through pure force. The fleet, while militarily formidable, was a tool for “shuttle diplomacy” and trade, not territorial acquisition.

Part III: The Encounter – Trade, Imbalance, and the Opium Wars

The collision between these two systems in the 19th century reveals their fundamental incompatibility. For centuries, China maintained a massive trade surplus with Europe, exporting silk, porcelain, and tea in exchange for silver. This flow of specie was essential for the Chinese economy. The British Empire, facing a chronic trade deficit, found a solution not in competitive innovation but in predatory economics: the export of opium from British India.

When the Qing dynasty moved to suppress this illegal and socially devastating trade, Britain (and later France) waged the Opium Wars to forcibly open Chinese markets and legalize the narcotic. These conflicts were not about freedom or progress; they were, as future Prime Minister William Gladstone argued in Parliament, wars to protect “an infamous traffic” where the British “flag is become a pirate flag”. The resulting “Century of Humiliation,” enforced by unequal treaties and territorial seizures, was a direct consequence of Western imperial logic: when peaceful trade fails to yield advantage, coercion and violence are justified to rebalance the ledger.

Part IV: Enduring Patterns – Assimilation, Education, and Long-Termism

Several other historical patterns distinguish the Chinese model:

· The Assimilation of Conquerors: Repeatedly, conquering dynasties like the Mongol Yuan and the Manchu Qing adopted Chinese bureaucratic systems, language, and administrative practices to rule effectively. The conquerors were sinicized, not the reverse.

· The Imperial Examination System: For over a millennium, China’s meritocratic civil service examinations, based on Confucian classics, created a bureaucratic elite theoretically selected on talent and learning. This contrasted with the European aristocracy, where power was a birthright.

· Strategic Long-Termism vs. Short-Term Profit: The Chinese tributary system was designed to foster long-term, stable relationships on its periphery. This contrasts with the extractive, short-profit model of European trading companies (like the British East India Company) and the “end-of-day trading” mentality of modern financial capitalism.

Conclusion: The Unlikely Aggressor

Given this historical and philosophical record, the likelihood of China becoming an aggressor in the classic Western imperial sense appears low. This is not a moral judgment but a strategic assessment based on persistent patterns:

1. Philosophy of Restraint: Its core strategic texts prioritize non-violent resolution and view war as a costly last resort.

2. Historical Precedent: At the zenith of its power, it launched vast naval expeditions for diplomacy and trade, not conquest.

3. Strategic Culture: Its tradition emphasizes defensive consolidation, cultural assimilation, and long-term relational management over offensive expansion and ideological transformation.

4. Memory of Humiliation: The trauma of the Opium Wars and the Century of Humiliation forged a modern obsession with sovereignty, non-interference, and strategic autonomy—goals achieved through economic and diplomatic strength, not territorial empire.

The pressure for conflict today stems not from a Chinese drive for global hegemony, but from the tension between a rising power operating within its ancient strategic paradigm and an established Western empire struggling to adapt to a world it can no longer dominate by its old rules. The Dragon’s way is not the Eagle’s way. We must understand both to see the true shape of the future.

References

1. Llewellyn, J., & Kucha, G. (2019, March 11). The Mandate of Heaven and Confucianism. Alpha History. https://alphahistory.com/chineserevolution/mandate-of-heaven-confucianism/ 

2. Fuentes, C. (n.d.). Demystifying The Art of War. Actuary.org. https://actuary.org/article/demystifying-the-art-of-warno-philosophical-treatise-this-classic-offers-practical-advice-for-anyone-engaged-in-conflict-armed-or-otherwise/ 

3. Ming treasure voyages. (n.d.). In Wikipedia. Retrieved December 19, 2025. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ming_treasure_voyages 

4. Admiral Zheng He and the Chinese Treasure Fleet. (n.d.). Maritime Museum. https://www.education.maritime-museum.org/training/north-gallery-2/asian-history/admiral-zheng-he-and-the-chinese-treasure-fleet/ 

5. Zheng He (1371–1433): China’s masterful mariner and diplomat. (n.d.). Diplo. https://www.diplomacy.edu/blog/zheng-he-1371-1433-an-unrecognized-genius/ 

6. Opium Wars. (n.d.). In Wikipedia. Retrieved December 19, 2025. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opium_Wars 

7. The Mechanics of Opium Wars. (n.d.). Australian Museum. https://australian.museum/learn/cultures/international-collection/chinese/the-mechanics-of-opium-wars/