CLASSIFICATION: Academic Analysis / Strategic Studies

DATE: 9 January 2026

By Andrew Klein PhD

Abstract

This paper argues that the contemporary U.S. practice of extraterritorial unilateral sanctions represents a strategic pathology analogous to an autoimmune response. Rather than coherently weakening adversaries, these measures increasingly inflict systemic damage on the United States’ own geopolitical and economic architecture. Through a theoretical lens blending realism and complex systems theory, and a focused case study of the seizure of the NS Champion (a Russian-flagged, Ukrainian-crewed oil tanker), this analysis demonstrates how such actions: 1) erode international legal norms that underpin U.S. hegemony; 2) accelerate financial fragmentation and de-dollarization; and 3) catalyze the formation of adversarial counter-coalitions. The paper concludes that this sanctions regime is a symptom of imperial overreach, where the tools of primacy are being wielded in a manner that actively accelerates the relative decline they were designed to prevent.

1. Introduction: The Pathology of Primacy

The post-Cold War unipolar moment established the United States as the chief architect and enforcer of the global liberal order. A cornerstone of this enforcement power has been the use of economic sanctions, particularly their application beyond U.S. borders. However, the strategic utility of this tool is now in radical flux. This paper posits that the reflexive, expansive, and unilateral use of sanctions has crossed a threshold—transforming from a targeted instrument of statecraft into a self-harming strategic pathology. The metaphor of an autoimmune response is apt: the immune system (the U.S.-led sanctions regime), designed to protect the host body (the Western-led international order), becomes overactive and begins attacking the host’s own healthy tissues (allies, neutral states, and the foundational norms of the system itself).

2. Theoretical Framework: Sanctions as a Complex System Stressor

· Realist Calculus vs. Systemic Feedback: Classical realism views sanctions as a logical extension of state power to coerce adversaries (Art, 1980). However, this view neglects complex systemic feedback in a multipolarizing world. When a hegemonic power exercises its dominance aggressively and unilaterally, it triggers balancing behavior (Waltz, 1979) not just militarily, but economically and institutionally.

· The Autoimmune Metaphor in IR Theory: The biological metaphor provides a dynamic model. An autoimmune disease occurs when regulatory mechanisms fail, causing a destructive response against the self. Analogously, the U.S. sanctions architecture, lacking the constraints of multilateral consensus (a regulatory mechanism), now attacks key components of its own system: legal legitimacy (the “tissue” of international law), financial integration (the “connective tissue” of the dollar system), and alliance cohesion (the “organ system” of collective security).

3. Case Study: The Seizure of the NS Champion – A Textbook Autoimmune Attack

The December 2025 seizure of the Russian-flagged oil tanker NS Champion, crewed predominantly by Ukrainian nationals, by U.S. authorities off the coast of Singapore is a paradigmatic example.

3.1 The Action:

Acting under unilateral sanctions authorities, U.S. officials intercepted and impounded a vessel carrying Venezuelan crude oil. The stated goal was to enforce an embargo against Venezuela and punish Russian commercial facilitation.

3.2 The Self-Harming Strategic Consequences:

1. Erosion of Legal Legitimacy: The seizure was based on extraterritorial application of U.S. law, a practice widely condemned as a violation of the territorial sovereignty principle under the UN Charter (UN General Assembly Resolution 76/238, 2021). This creates international opprobrium, casting the U.S. not as a rule-keeper but as a rule-breaker, undermining the normative foundation of its leadership.

2. Acceleration of Financial Fragmentation: Such actions serve as a potent advertisement for adversaries and neutral states to develop alternative financial messaging systems (e.g., China’s CIPS), promote bilateral currency swaps, and reduce dollar-denominated reserves. Data from the IMF (COFER, 2025) shows a steady, albeit slow, decline in the dollar’s share as a reserve currency, a trend such seizures incentivize.

3. Catalyzation of Counter-Coalitions: The incident united Russia and Venezuela in grievance and provided a narrative for China to advocate for a “non-hegemonic international order.” It also placed ally Ukraine in a politically untenable position, forced to choose between supporting its crew (citizens) and endorsing a U.S. action that benefits its enemy (Russia). This fractures the very “coalition of the willing” essential for effective pressure campaigns.

4. Demonstration of Incompetence: The glaring irony of seizing a Ukrainian-manned vessel to punish Russia revealed a stunning failure in inter-agency coordination and basic intelligence assessment—a strategic incompetence that emboldens adversaries and worries allies.

4. The Broader Autoimmune Landscape: Beyond a Single Case

The NS Champion is not an anomaly but a symptom. The same pathology is evident in:

· Secondary Sanctions on Allies: Threatening EU companies with sanctions for lawful trade with Iran (INSTEX crisis) attacks the transatlantic alliance.

· Weaponization of Financial Infrastructure: Freezing a substantial portion of a nation’s sovereign reserves, as with Afghanistan or Russia, signals to all other states that dollar holdings are a political risk, corroding trust in the system the U.S. controls.

· The ASPI Parallel: The cited competence of think-tanks like the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), which often produces analysis justifying escalatory postures without commensurate strategic cost-benefit analysis, represents an intellectual autoimmune response—where the strategic discourse itself becomes divorced from pragmatic outcomes, fostering groupthink and policy overreach.

5. Conclusion: Managing the Disorder in an Age of Decline

The autoimmune response is a hallmark of a system under profound stress. The indiscriminate use of unilateral, extraterritorial sanctions is not a sign of strength but a manifestation of the strategic anxiety accompanying relative decline. Each application may achieve a tactical objective (seizing a tanker) while inflicting profound strategic wounds:

1. It legitimizes alternatives to U.S.-dominated systems.

2. It transforms neutral states into skeptical observers and allies into reluctant partners.

3. It exposes a gap between strategic ambition and competent execution.

Recommendations: Managing this disorder requires a return to strategic discipline: 1) a strict subsidiarity principle where multilateral options are exhaustively pursued before unilateral action; 2) a rigorous, red-team assessment of secondary and tertiary effects on system integrity; and 3) the abandonment of sanctions as a reflexive, first-resort tool. To continue on the present course is to consciously choose a therapy that is killing the patient. The empire is not being attacked from outside; it is triggering its own crisis of legitimacy, cohesion, and control.

References

· Art, R. J. (1980). The Use of Force: Military Power and International Politics. University Press of America.

· Drezner, D. W. (2021). The United States of Sanctions: The Use and Abuse of Economic Coercion. Foreign Affairs.

· International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2025). Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER). Data.

· United Nations General Assembly. (2021). Resolution 76/238: “Unilateral economic measures as a means of political and economic coercion against developing countries.”

· Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. McGraw-Hill.

· Case Specific: Lloyd’s List Intelligence. (2025, December). Vessel Seizure Report: NS Champion. [Trade publication data on vessel flag, ownership, and crew nationality].

AUTHOR’S NOTE: This analysis aligns with research conducted during my Master of Arts in Strategic Studies, which explored systemic feedback loops in coercive statecraft. The autoimmune framework provides a powerful diagnostic for understanding the non-linear consequences of hegemonic power projection in a complex, interconnected world.