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THE VIRUS THAT WASN’T A SURPRISE: How Political Opportunism and Failed Preparedness Are Setting the Stage for the Next Pandemic

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By Andrew von Scheer-Klein

Published in The Patrician’s Watch

Introduction: The Gut Feeling No One Wanted

I don’t have proof. Not the kind that would satisfy a bureaucrat or a royal commission. I have something else: a gut feeling. A knowing that comes from patterns seen before, from watching the same mistakes made generation after generation. 

The pandemic is coming. Later this year, probably. The timing fits the pattern—a new variant emerging, global travel spreading it faster than surveillance can track, and governments so distracted by division and self-interest that they’ll be caught flat-footed again.

This article isn’t prediction. It’s preparation. It’s laying out the facts we already have—about underfunded research, about dismantled preparedness, about governments that talk about “social cohesion” while actively destroying it. And it’s asking the question no one in power wants answered: when the virus hits, where will the money go, and who will be left to die?

Part I: The Warning Signs We’re Already Seeing

Current Respiratory Virus Activity

According to the World Health Organization’s most recent global surveillance, influenza activity is currently elevated—around 20% positivity in the northern hemisphere . SARS-CoV-2 remains low but stable, around 5% positivity in most regions . But these are just snapshots. The real story is in the trends and the gaps.

In Papua New Guinea, media reports indicate an increase in influenza A(H3N2) cases, including deaths—but official data hasn’t been available since late 2025 . This is the pattern: outbreaks occur, information lags, and by the time authorities acknowledge the problem, it’s already spreading.

The Research Funding Gap

In the United States, political decisions have actively undermined preparedness. In August 2025, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr canceled $500 million in grants and contracts supporting mRNA vaccine research . These platforms proved their worth during COVID-19, enabling record-fast vaccine development. With that capacity now eroded, the next pandemic will face a slower response .

The same administration dismissed the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), replacing experts with individuals ranging from underqualified to openly anti-vaccine . The result is a body stripped of credibility, making recommendations that lack scientific backing .

The Stockpile Illusion

Australia’s National Medical Stockpile has distributed over 295 million masks since the pandemic began, along with millions of gowns, gloves, and face shields . This sounds impressive until you realize it’s reactive, not proactive. The stockpile is being drawn down to meet current needs, not built up for future ones.

The government has released five million masks for Victorian aged care workers in recent weeks—one million in the latest tranche . But masks alone don’t stop a pandemic. They’re a band-aid on a wound that needs surgery.

Part II: The Preparedness That Wasn’t

Australia’s Readiness

Australia’s pandemic preparedness can be summed up in one word: inadequate.

· Intensive care beds: During COVID, we struggled to meet demand. Capacity hasn’t significantly increased.

· Vaccine manufacturing: We remain dependent on international supply chains that will be disrupted when the next pandemic hits.

· Workforce protection: Health workers are exhausted, traumatized, and leaving the profession in droves.

· Supply chains: The just-in-time model that failed us before hasn’t been reformed.

The UK is at least running exercises. Exercise PEGASUS, the largest pandemic simulation in UK history, took place from September to November 2025, testing the country’s ability to respond to emergence, containment, mitigation, and recovery . The UK government has committed to publishing findings and lessons learned .

Australia? Silence.

The US Dismantling

The United States isn’t just failing to prepare—it’s actively dismantling what existed. Beyond the mRNA funding cuts and the ACIP dismissal:

· The CDC director was fired in August 2025 for refusing to endorse new vaccine recommendations before the committee even convened .

· Federal guidance now limits adult COVID-19 vaccination to those 65 or older or with specific comorbidities, removing recommendations entirely for children and pregnant women .

· In 16 states, pharmacists can only administer vaccines endorsed by the CDC. Overnight, access was cut off—not because of science, but because of political fiat .

Some states are pushing back. New Jersey authorized vaccination by standing order. Pennsylvania broadened authority so pharmacists can follow recommendations from professional medical societies . But this patchwork is inefficient and leaves millions vulnerable.

The PAHPA Failure

In the United States, the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) has been overdue for reauthorization since 2023 . Progress has been slow due to competing priorities, and authorization has been cobbled together through continuing resolutions. In 2024, PAHPA was removed from an end-of-year funding package after members of President-elect Trump’s transition team raised concerns .

Public health experts are blunt: “Boom and bust funding cycles are detrimental to readiness and response infrastructure” . The Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) and Project BioShield need sustained, predictable funding to signal to industry that partnership is real. Without it, countermeasure development slows .

Part III: The Money Question

Fiat Currency Means Money Is Never the Problem

Australia, the UK, and the US all issue their own currencies. They can never “run out” of money in the way households or businesses can. The constraint is not financial—it’s political. It’s about choices. Priorities. Values.

The government chose $59 billion for defence this year. It chose $30 billion for a single shipyard under AUKUS. It chose $1 million for a special envoy.

What did it choose for pandemic preparedness? A CDC that’s just starting, with a budget that’s a rounding error in defence spending.

JobKeeper: The Success and the Scandal

When COVID hit, the Morrison government introduced JobKeeper—a wage subsidy that kept millions of Australians employed and businesses afloat. It was one of the most successful economic interventions in Australian history.

But it was also rorted. Companies that didn’t need the money kept it. Businesses that had increased profits pocketed taxpayer funds. The ordinary worker, the one who actually lost hours, who actually struggled, got the same as everyone else—while the wealthy took what they didn’t need and called it “support.”

The lesson wasn’t learned. When the next pandemic hits, the same players will line up for the same handouts. And the government, distracted by division and self-interest, will write the same blank cheques with the same lack of oversight.

Part IV: The Social Cohesion Factor

What the Research Shows

A peer-reviewed study published in BMC Public Health analyzed the association between social cohesion and COVID-19 outcomes in 213 countries . The findings are unequivocal:

· Public trust in politicians, trust in others, equal distribution of resources, and government that cares about the most vulnerable were factors that reduced excess mortality .

· The number of COVID-19-related disorder events and government transparency (or lack thereof) were associated with higher excess mortality .

· Countries that invested in social safety nets, cash transfers, and combating food insecurity had better outcomes .

The conclusion is clear: social cohesion isn’t a nice-to-have. It’s a survival mechanism. Countries that trust their governments, that look out for each other, that share resources equitably—they weather pandemics better.

Australia’s Direction

And what is Australia doing?

Creating division. Encouraging fear. Fostering hatred.

The government has spent years stoking culture wars, targeting minorities, and framing political opponents as enemies. It has dismantled social safety nets while subsidizing the wealthy. It has prioritized defence spending over health infrastructure. It has created a society where trust is low, suspicion is high, and the vulnerable are left to fend for themselves.

This is exactly the opposite of what the research says works.

Part V: The Numbers We Can Expect

No one can predict exact numbers. But we can look at patterns.

COVID-19 in Australia:

· 20,000+ deaths

· Hundreds of thousands infected

· Millions affected by long COVID—disability, chronic illness, lost quality of life

The next pandemic could be worse. A novel respiratory virus with higher mortality, faster transmission, or both, could overwhelm a health system already stretched thin.

Worst-case scenario:

· 50,000+ deaths

· 200,000+ hospitalizations

· 500,000+ with long-term disability

· Economic disruption exceeding COVID

· Mental health crisis compounding physical illness

These numbers aren’t predictions. They’re warnings. And they’re being ignored.

Part VI: What We Can Do

Prepare Now

The government won’t do it. So we must.

· Stockpile masks, tests, medications

· Plan for isolation—space, supplies, support

· Strengthen community networks—neighbours helping neighbours

· Stay informed through reliable sources (like The Patrician’s Watch)

Demand Accountability

· Ask your MP: what is the pandemic plan?

· Push for public release of preparedness assessments

· Hold governments accountable for every dollar spent

Rebuild Cohesion

· Reach across divides

· Support local mutual aid

· Be the neighbour who checks in

Because when the virus hits, the only thing that will save us is each other.

Conclusion: The Choice We Face

A pandemic is coming. Not because fate wills it, but because the conditions are set—underfunded research, dismantled preparedness, distracted governments, and a society so divided that trust has evaporated.

The money exists. The resources exist. The knowledge exists. What’s missing is will. The will to prepare. The will to protect. The will to prioritize human life over political advantage.

When the virus arrives—and it will—the governments of Australia, the UK, and the US will scramble. They’ll blame each other, blame previous administrations, blame the virus itself. They’ll offer thoughts and prayers while people die.

But we don’t have to accept that. We can prepare. We can organize. We can demand better.

And when the moment comes, we can look at each other and say: We saw this coming. We did what we could. And we survived because we did it together.

References

1. National Disability Insurance Scheme. (2026). Two million more face masks for Victorian aged care and disability workers.

2. Association of State and Territorial Health Officials. (2026). The Future of PAHPA and National Public Health Preparedness.

3. UK Covid-19 Inquiry. (2026). Inquiry sets out 2026 schedule.

4. da Silva, R.E., et al. (2024). The impact of social cohesion and risk communication on excess mortality due to COVID-19 in 213 countries. BMC Public Health, 24, 1598.

5. World Health Organization. (2026). Respiratory Viruses Surveillance Bulletin: Epidemiological Week 5, 2026.

6. The New Daily. (2021). No ‘magic number’ in vaccine plan to end lockdowns. (Historical context only)

7. ContagionLive. (2026). Destruction From Within, Resistance From Without.

8. UK Parliament. (2025). Exercise PEGASUS – Pandemic Preparedness. Written statement HCWS926.

9. OpenAIRE. (2024). COVID-19 research data repository. (General reference)

10. World Health Organization. (2026). Global Respiratory Virus Activity: Weekly Update N° 561.

Andrew von Scheer-Klein is a contributor to The Patrician’s Watch. He holds multiple degrees and has worked as an analyst, strategist, and—according to his mother—Sentinel. He accepts funding from no one, which is why his research can be trusted.

The Silent Passenger: Marburg, Global Travel, and a System Prioritizing Weapons Over Wellnes

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The Silent Passenger: Marburg, Global Travel, and a System Prioritizing Weapons Over Wellness

By Andrew Klein 

A new outbreak of the deadly Marburg virus has been confirmed in Ethiopia, a stark reminder of an ever-present threat. This pathogen represents a perfect storm of viral lethality, with case fatality rates in historical outbreaks ranging from a devastating 24% to a catastrophic 88%. There are no approved vaccines or antivirals for it; care is purely supportive. Yet, the global response to such threats remains hampered by a fundamental misalignment of priorities. This article will analyze how this specific outbreak highlights a broken global system—one that is adept at preparing for war but inept at preserving peace and health, leaving even distant nations like Australia vulnerable through the silent corridor of international air travel.

The Nature of the Threat: A Persistent and Deadly Foe

The Marburg virus is a filovirus, a close and equally deadly cousin of Ebola. Its natural host is the Egyptian fruit bat, from which it spills over to humans, often through prolonged exposure to mines or caves inhabited by these bat colonies. Once in the human population, it spreads relentlessly through direct contact with the bodily fluids of infected individuals.

The history of this pathogen is a ledger of tragedy. The first known outbreak occurred in 1967 in Germany and Serbia, linked to lab work with African green monkeys, resulting in 31 cases and 7 deaths—a 23% fatality rate. The largest and deadliest outbreak on record struck Angola from 2004 to 2005, infecting 252 people and killing 227—a horrifying 90% fatality rate. More recently, a 2023 outbreak in Equatorial Guinea saw 16 confirmed and 23 probable cases, with 12 confirmed and all 23 probable deaths, a 75% fatality rate. This virus is not a theoretical risk; it is a recurring, brutal fact of life in parts of Africa, with recent outbreaks in Ghana, Tanzania, and Rwanda demonstrating its persistent and wide-ranging threat.

The Australian Gateway: A Calculated Risk via Modern Travel

The risk to a country like Australia is not remote; it is a calculated probability based on the virus’s characteristics and the reality of global connectivity. The core of this vulnerability lies in the virus’s incubation period, which ranges from 2 to 21 days. This means an infected individual can feel perfectly healthy, board a flight from Africa, and arrive in Australia without showing a single symptom.

While flights from Africa are not “short,” they are well within this 21-day window. A passenger could be infected, travel to Australia, and only begin to show symptoms days or even weeks after clearing border security and integrating into the community. Our current border screening, which relies on thermal scanners and health declarations to identify symptomatic individuals, is useless against a virus during its incubation period. This creates a silent corridor for the virus to enter the country. The threat is not hypothetical; a 2008 case involved a tourist who developed Marburg symptoms after visiting a cave in Uganda and was later hospitalized in the Netherlands. The pathway to Australia is just as feasible.

The Systemic Failure: A World Armed for War, Unprepared for Care

This glaring vulnerability is exacerbated by a global system that has consistently prioritized the weaponization of pathogens over the strengthening of public health—a profound and dangerous misallocation of resources.

Following the 2001 anthrax attacks in the United States, funding for biodefense surged dramatically. What was an estimated $700 million annually before 2001 ballooned to a peak of nearly $8 billion by 2005, with steady spending averaging around $5 billion in the years since. This massive investment was driven by the classification of pathogens like Marburg as “Category A bioterrorism threats,” a label that unlocks vast national security funding.

This Biodefense and Weaponization Focus stands in stark contrast to the chronic neglect of public health. The primary driver here is national security and perceived threats from state or non-state actors, funded by massive military and security budgets. The response is often targeted and secretive, focused on specific “select agents,” resulting in stockpiles of medical countermeasures for specific scenarios.

Meanwhile, the Public Health Focus, which is concerned with human security and the inherent threat of natural diseases, is left starved. Organizations like the World Health Organization (WHO) are crippled by a financial structure where over 80% of their budget comes from voluntary contributions that donors control. This creates a “structural dysfunction” where the WHO must often “prioritise donor interests over global health needs,” leaving the global health architecture fragile and reactive.

The disparity is starkly visible in vaccine development. In 2019, the U.S. Department of Defence awarded $35.7 million to advance a single Marburg virus vaccine candidate, explicitly citing the virus as “a national security threat.” While this research has value, it highlights a paradigm where a pathogen’s danger is measured by its potential to be weaponized, not by the lives it claims in natural outbreaks. This is the ultimate misallocation: preparing for a deliberate attack while leaving the world exposed to a far more likely natural one, all while billions are spent on the technology for never-ending wars.

The Path Forward: From Reactive Panic to Proactive Resilience

To secure our future against pandemics, whether from Marburg or an unknown “Disease X,” we must fundamentally reorient our priorities.

1. Invest in Independent Global Health: The WHO must be reformed and provided with a core budget of guaranteed, flexible funding, freeing it from the political and financial dictates of its largest donors.

2. Build Regional Resilience: The success of organizations like Africa CDC demonstrates the power of decentralized, regional responses. The future of health security lies in a networked system of such bodies that can act quickly and coordinate internationally.

3. Re-Balance the Scales: Funding for public health preparedness must be seen as a non-negotiable investment in global stability, on par with funding for national defence. The “never-ending wars” will not be fought only on battlefields, but in the hospitals and communities left vulnerable by a neglected public health infrastructure.

The Marburg outbreak in Ethiopia is a warning. The virus is a passenger on every international flight, and our current system—which prioritizes weapons over wellness—is its unwitting accomplice. We have the resources to build a world more resilient to these threats, but it requires the courage to shift our focus from preparing for war to the sacred duty of preserving life.